Monday, 15 December 2008

And in the yellow corner (that's Australian gold my friend)...

SO, we're coming up to what some are describing as a world heavyweight championship bout - except there shouldn't be any punches thrown. We hope.
Australia are hosting South Africa in a three-Test series that begins in Perth on Wednesday. According to the ICC this is one vs two on their Test Championship; although with India having recently beaten Australia 2-0 and having just beaten England by chasing down 387 runs with six wickets still intact, one could argue that they are a more worthy number two.
Either way it promises to be an exciting series. Although Australia have been said to be a team in decline before (see post-2001 in India, post-2005 Ashes series), this time they are sans three greats in Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath and Adam Gilchrist. And while Brad Haddin showed his batting talent with 169 against New Zealand, McGrath's "clone" Stuart Clark underwent surgery on Monday and will be out for the rest of the international season. As for a spinning replacement for Warne... it's beginning to look as though to pick a spinner, selectors put names into a hat and pick on out. Outside of the retired Stuart MacGill and Brad Hogg, Dan Cullen, Beau Casson, Jason Krejza and Nathan Hauritz have all had a go in the past few years: Cullen, Casson and Krejza for one Test each and Hauritz for an unlikely two, including Australia's most recent after being 12th man for NSW the week before.
The Proteas meanwhile seem quite settled. Their batting lineup of Smith, McKenzie, Amla, Kallis, Prince and de Villiers are for the most part in form (Kallis the only, unlikely exception), while their bowling has a nice look about it. Steyn's what they call "a bit quick", Morne Morkel's height and pace may cause discomfort, while Kallis makes up for his current lack of runs with some handy swing bowling. It's not all good though: while Ntini found some form against Bangladesh, this was on the bouncy South African wickets where Bangladeshi batsmen still struggle. Paul Harris' spinners will probably be the weak point, as tweakers in Australia generally need to turn the ball to be successful.
So what to make of this series? At the risk of sounding stupid, it's whoever takes 20 wickets in a match. Both sides have strong batsmen and pace attacks, but with over rates becoming an increasingly bigger issue, it could come down to the spinners. Both pace attacks are fairly similar: Steyn and Lee are both fast spearheads; Johnson and Morkel useful backups; and Siddle (Clark's replacement) and Ntini both have question marks over their effectiveness. Between the two pace attacks both teams should gain a similar number of wickets; it's what the spinners and back-up bowlers can do that will win it for either side.
Of the back-up pacemen Kallis has the edge over Andrew Symonds, although if Symonds fails again in Perth Shane Watson could come in, narrowing that gap. But with over rates becoming a big issue (not least for Ricky Ponting's hip pocket), it could be where Australia has the edge. Although he went for nearly 30 runs for each of his 12 wickets on debut, Jason Krejza is a more attacking bowler than Paul Harris. With both spinners likely to bowl a decent number of overs, it could be Krejza that holds the key.
Provided they actually pick him that is. Funny if Simon Katich ended up being the top spinner eh?

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